The newest Datafolha poll reveals a tight race for Brazil’s upcoming presidential election, showing left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a hypothetical second-round matchup.
Key Highlights:
- Dead Heat in the Runoff: If the election proceeds to a second-round runoff in October, both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro—would secure exactly 45% of the vote each. This solidifies a statistical tie, matching similar closely grouped figures from the previous month where Flávio held a nominal 46% to Lula’s 45%.
- First-Round Standings: In the initial round of voting, the survey of 2,004 respondents shows Lula holding a narrow lead with 38% of voter support. Flávio Bolsonaro follows closely in second place at 35%.
- The Shadow of Scandal: The polling data was largely collected on May 12 and 13, just before a major investigative report emerged from Intercept Brasil. The report alleges that Senator Bolsonaro negotiated a 134 million reais ($26.5 million) deal with Daniel Vorcaro, a recently jailed former banker under investigation for the collapse of Banco Master, to finance a biographical film about his father. +1
- Reactions and Denial: While the younger Bolsonaro has strongly denied any wrongdoing regarding the film financing deal, the long-term impact of this scandal on his campaign remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the broader race continues to tighten significantly compared to late last year, when Lula enjoyed a comfortable lead. +1
To see how the numbers stand across different potential runoff scenarios, you can watch this report on Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s Tie which details the latest survey data from Datafolha.
JH: In the second round, Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are tied. – YouTube
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